It wasn’t that long ago that McDonald’s in Europe was dealing with a significant downturn in business because of an unpredictable problem called Mad Cow disease.
Airlines that depend heavily on routes to Asia had no way to predict the outbreak of SARS.
As 9/11 should have taught us, we can’t predict the catastrophes that shake us to our foundation.
In this kind of environment, what is a leader to do?
The best solution I can come up with—and it is imperfect—I learned from my years growing up on a dairy and crop farm. Our best efforts could be undone by weather, insects or any number of factors beyond our control. We lived by a simple motto: Expect the best, but prepare for the worst.
Optimism is difficult when considering an unpredictable future, but it is still necessary. Leaders gain nothing and do nothing for followers by becoming fatalistic. At the same time they must have contingency plans that anticipate, and to the degree possible, prevent or minimize, the consequences of the unforeseen.
The unpredictable future requires leaders to maintain a delicate balance between optimism and the anticipation of the unpleasant.
